WAKE UP IT’S GAMEDAY.
Nothing could be better than waking up, grabbing a cup of coffee to nurse the current hangover and realizing we are less than 4 hours away from some football.
Without further adieu, here are my Week 4 Picks.
Saturday, March 2nd
San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express +6.5 O/U 39.5
3 PM CT on B/R Live
I refuse to be a square like the rest of my colleagues here at Ball On The 25.
After the blowout win against the Commanders, many around the league are hopping on the Fleet bandwagon left and right. Not me. This Memphis Express offense roared to life last week behind the entrance of Zach Mettenberger. He dropped two touchdowns and could have scored the upset if the game had Mettenberger started the game. Memphis, playing at home, will be able to find some stability and consistency at quarterback and will take the Fleet to the wire and will cover +6.5.
My Pick: Memphis +6.5, Over 39.5
Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions +4.5 O/U 41
7 PM CT on NFL Network
This is a game I flipped at the last moment while putting in my picks. All week I was sold on the Salt Lake fever, with their first win I thought they could knock off another undefeated team. The issue with this is that Garrett Gilbert will not get hurt (unlike Hotshots QB John Wolford) and this is a balanced Apollos offense that will try to stretch this Stallions teams vertical. Unless the Stallions defensive front can get pressure early and often, I feel good enough about the Apollos covering. However, I would not be shocked to see the Stallions pull out the W.
My Pick: Orlando -4.5, Under 41
Sunday, March 3rd
San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron -8 O/U 37.5
3 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
This is the one pick this week that we all have in common so I can’t wait for all 5 of us to lose. Birmingham is a consistent team and is at home. They have a hard-nosed defense and win, even if it is not flashy. On the flipside, a demoralized San Antonio team coming to town that has struggled with inconsistent quarterback play. I said it last week, this San Antonio team is like the New Orleans Saints. Take them out of the Dome and they are a mediocre team. The only real concern I have in this game is if Birmingham can score enough to make it into a 2 score game.
Plus, this is Mike Reilly we are talking about here. Bet against him.
My Pick: Birmingham -8, Under 37.5
Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots -14 O/U 40.5
7 PM CT on NFL Network
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Despite calling the Legends dead to rights this week in my power rankings, I am not only sticking with them. They are my Week 4 Lock of the Week.
This is the most intriguing pick of the week and was close to being my lock. With John Wolford being injured in last week’s game, reports are he is hoping to be “close to 100%”. If he plays, that tips the scale closer towards me picking the Hotshots. However, I do not think he will be quite 100% and did not look spectacular after last week’s loss and had a mediocre performance in squeaking by the Express in Week 2.
Atlanta has played three really good teams in Orlando, San Diego, and Birmingham. While Arizona is no different, 14 points is a lot for any team in professional football. Despite having an awful offense, Simms has looked a little better and I think they will backdoor cover in this game.
My Pick: Atlanta +14, Under 40.5